Mahmoud Khattab on the 2021 World Health Care Outlook

Portrait of industry in transition

The 2021 global health care sector transition is particularly significant. The decade between 2020 and 2030 will be the first period in which the private and public sectors have simultaneously owned and operated as large global players. We will witness the culmination of profound shifts and reforms in industry structure and governance; health care workforce and infrastructure; information, finance, and business models; and clinical and therapeutic innovations.

2021 Global Health Care Outlook

With COVID-19 arriving and new systems coming online in 2020, our research team anticipates a wave of novel innovations and forces driving industry change. The co-sponsorship of the 2020 Global Health Workforce Survey is vital for defining trends in the health workforce in 2020 and 2030 and defining key priorities in the period, noted Mahmoud Khattab.

Global health workforce in 2030

Mahmoud Khattab: Critical gaps remain in knowledge about global health workforce demographics, recruitment trends, pathways to national health workforce strategies, and key factors driving workforce outcomes.

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Impact on the workforce

According to the Rand study, 54% of the current jobs in health care will become obsolete by 2030. For the US, more than 1 million nurses will be lost by 2030, to be replaced by other job categories such as physician assistants, physician orderlies, and technicians.

If current trends continue, 30% of the US’s medical school graduates will not be suitable to the rapidly changing nature of work. Unemployed graduates, many with degrees in science and engineering, will form a burgeoning underclass that will contribute to social instability and the undermining of the United States’ economic and security.

While nearly all jobs in health care are becoming less physically demanding, many jobs that were once safe or highly desirable will soon be losing their relevance.

Chronic and infectious diseases that lead to chronic conditions require long-term care and/or patient-caregiver support, including mental and behavioral disorders that don’t appear in the patient’s clinical history. Mental disorders are likely to increase in number and incidence as population ages. The mental disorders associated with the pandemic will require advanced interventions at a greater cost to address.